Wednesday, November 20, 2019 8:19 pm  Mandraselvan Ragupathy  0  20k 

ANNUAL WEATHER FORECAST 2020 – (VEDIC METEOROLOGY)

(FOR THE INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT)

Article by: RAMACHANDRAN, Astro-Meteorologist.

My 2019 Annual weather Forecast was way off the mark from the last week of July, 2019.  My forecast of SEVERE DRAUGHT failed miserably though peak rainfalls occurred as per my warning dates. I take full responsibility for the lapses and offer my “SINCERE APOLOGIES” to all.  The weather patterns during 2019 have taught lessons the hard way and I am sure that it will help me in research and improve my future forecasts.

MAIN POINTS:

(1-A) From 2019 December second week beginning till the third week of January, 2020 – the ‘Winter’ will be severe over northwest India and Himalayan region. But the plains and the southern peninsula      will experience moderate winter & dry weather only.  Severe blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall, Avalanches and icy rainfall are forecast during the above period.

(1-B) Between the last week of January and the end of February, 2020 Powerful “Negative Indian Ocean Dipole” will be active. Blizzards, with massive snowfall, icy rainfall in the Himalayan region are forecast during the above period, Avalanches, landslides, Killer Lightning and severe flooding will cause fatalities and upset normal life.  West & Northwest Punjab and North & West Haryana will also suffer. Northeastern states (Icy rainfall), south Tamilnadu, Kerala and southwest Karnataka will experience incessant rainfall resulting in flooding.

(2) From the beginning of March, 2020 till the first week of May, 2020 “Strong Positive Indian Ocean Dipole” will be active.  During this period rapid mercurial changes in weather will result in “Progressively Very Hot conditions with Record High Temperatures”.  Extra tropical cyclone systems, Tropical cyclones, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes and ‘KILLER LIGHTNING’ will be active during this period.   West and Northwest states and the Himalayan region will experience “Heavy to Very Heavy” rainfall. Catastrophic damages to life and property due to severe flooding, landslides will upset normal life. High altitude hill regions (Both in the North & south) are also warned about similar weather conditions during the above period. Southern peninsular India will remain hot and dry with occasional thunderstorms and Convective precipitation at isolated places.

(3) Moderate Pre-Monsoon rainfall followed by early setting of SOUTH-WEST MONSOON -2020 is forecast between the second week of May and the first week of June, 2020. The Best Rainfall benefits of 2020 Southwest Monsoon will be gained between the first week of May, 2020 and the second week of August, 2020. Two distinctly different weather patterns are forecast (I) From the first week of May till the first week of June, 2020 more widespread rainfall is forecast. (II)Squally winds with Thunderstorms, Induced Cyclonic Circulation, Tropical Cyclones and Convective precipitation are forecast from the second week of June till the second week of August, 2020.  Heavy to Very Heavy incessant rainfall during the above period will cause ‘SEVERE FLOODING’. Localised storms, flooding and KILLER LIGHTNING will cause devastations and fatalities during the above period.  “From the third week of July till the third week of October, 2020 there will be distinct difference in weather patterns between the first & second fortnight of the months. The first fortnight will experience ‘BETTER’ wet conditions than the second fortnight”. 

(4) From the third week of July, 2020 conditions will indicate emergence of “POWERFUL ELNINO”.  From the third week of August till the last week of October, 2020 “VERY POWERFUL ELNINO” will be “ACTIVE”. During the above period it will be ‘VERY HOT & DRY’.  High activities of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, Trough in Easterlies, Thunderstorms with squally winds & KILLER LIGHTNING and Convective precipitation are forecast during the above period. Isolated places will suffer flooding and damages due to the above conditions. In view of these conditions I forecast “2020 SOUTHWEST MONSOON to be DEFICIT & SCANTY”.   2020 will be registering VERY POOR MONSOON FAILURE comparable to 2019 MONSOON.

(5) 2020 will have “EXCELLENT NORTHEAST MONSOON”. From the last week of October, 2020 till the second week of January, 2021 “Widespread Incessant Rainfall” is forecast.  During the above period due to Cyclonic circulations, Tropical Cyclone, thunderstorms with KILLER LIGHTNING will cause FLOODING, LANDSLIDES and DEVASTATIONS upsetting normal life.  Also during the above period “More Cyclonic activities are forecast in the Arabian sea”.

DETAILED FORECAST:

 (1-A) From 2019 December second week beginning till the third week of January, 2020 – the ‘Winter’ will be severe over northwest India and Himalayan region.  But the plains and the southern peninsula      will experience moderate winter & dry weather only.  Severe blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall, Avalanches and icy rainfall are forecast during the above period.

Important dates for disaster preventive measures:

a) Between 12^th December, 2019 and 21^st December, 2019 Powerful Blizzards with Heavy to Heavy Snowfall/Icy rainfall triggering devastating ‘Avalanche’ are forecast. Conditions during the above period will be similar to the effects of POLAR VORTEX. Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand, Punjab and Nepal will be affected. Flash floods are warned during the above period. Peak activities 14^th to 16^th Dec’19 and again 18^th to 20^th Dec’19)

During the same period a Severe Tropical Cyclone is forecast in the Indian Ocean/Bay of Bengal. The location could be (i) The cyclone will cross northern SriLanka and enter Gulf of Mannar and will cross south TamilNadu coast around Rameswaram OR (ii) The Cyclone will cross north Madagascar coast.  Damages to life and property are warned between 14^th to 16^th Dec’19 and again 18^th to 20^th Dec’19.

b) Severe snowfall/Icy rainfall with blizzards is warned between 23^rd and 27^th December, 2020. Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Nepal will be affected. During the same period look for isolated thunderstorms in south TamilNadu districts.

c) More blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall/Icy rainfall are forecast between 2^nd & 5^th January, 2020 and again between 9^th & 11^th January, 2020. Avalanches and Flash floods are warned during the above period. Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Nepal will be affected. During the same period look for isolated thunderstorms in south TamilNadu districts.

d) Devastating blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall/Icy rainfall are warned between 14^th and 23^rd January, 2020. (Important dates 17^th to 19^th Jan’20 and 21^st to 23^rd Jan’20) Avalanches and Flash floods are warned during the above period. Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Nepal will be affected. During the same period look for isolated thunderstorms in southern districts of TamilNadu.

(1-B) Between the last week of January and the end of February, 2020 Powerful “Negative Indian Ocean Dipole” will be active. Blizzards, with massive snowfall, icy rainfall in the Himalayan region, are forecast during the above period, Avalanches, landslides, Killer Lightning and ‘SEVERE FLOODING’ will cause fatalities and upset normal life. West & Northwest Punjab and North & West Haryana will also suffer. During the same period Northeastern states (Icy rainfall), Tamilnadu, Kerala and southwest Karnataka will experience incessant rainfall resulting in flooding.

Important dates for disaster preventive measures:

(a) Between 24^th and 26^th January, 2020, (b) Between 31^st January and 3^rd February, 2020,

(c) Between 7^th and 9^th February, 2020, (d) Between 12^th and 18^th February, 2020 and

(e) Between 19^th and 25^th February, 2020.

(2) From the beginning of March, 2020 till the first week of May, 2020 “Strong Positive Indian Ocean Dipole” will be active.  During this period rapid mercurial changes in weather will result in “Progressively Very Hot conditions with Record High Temperatures”.  Extra tropical cyclone systems, Tropical cyclones, Thunderstorms, Tornadoes and ‘KILLER LIGHTNING’ will be active during this period.   West and Northwest states and the Himalayan region will experience “Heavy to Very Heavy” rainfall. Catastrophic damages to life and property due to severe flooding, landslides will upset normal life. High altitude hill regions (Both in the North & south) are also warned about similar weather conditions during the above period. Southern peninsular India will remain VERY HOT and DRY with occasional thunderstorms and Convective precipitation at isolated places.

Important dates for disaster preventive measures:

a) Between 26^th February, 2020 and 4^th March, 2020, (Sever cyclone)

b) Between 9^th and 13^th March, 2020 and again between 15^th and 17^th March, 2020,

c) Between 18^th March and 25^th March, 2020,

d) Between 31^st March and 3^rd April, 2020, (Cyclone)

e) Between 7^th and 9^th April, 2020,

f) Between 14^th & 16^th April, 2020 and again between 21^st April & 24^th April, 2020 (Severe Cyclone, in the Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea) and

g) Between 28^th April, 2020 and 7^th May, 2020.

(3) Moderate Pre-Monsoon rainfall followed by early setting of SOUTH-WEST MONSOON -2020 is forecast between the second week of May and the first week of June, 2020. The Best Rainfall benefits of 2020 Southwest Monsoon will be gained between the first week of May, 2020 and the second week of August, 2020. Two distinctly different weather patterns are forecast (I) From the first week of May till the first week of June, 2020 more widespread rainfall is forecast. (II)Squally winds with Thunderstorms, Induced Cyclonic Circulation, Tropical cyclones and Convective precipitation are forecast from the second week of June till the second week of August, 2020. Heavy to Very Heavy incessant rainfall during the above periods will cause ‘SEVERE FLOODING’. Localised Storms and KILLER LIGHTNING will cause devastations and fatalities during the above periods.   From the third week of July till the third week of October, 2020 there will be distinct difference in weather patterns between the first & second fortnight of the months. The first fortnight will experience ‘BETTER’ wet conditions than the second fortnight.  I expect 2020 will become the first year to experience more cyclones in a calendar year.

Important dates for disaster preventive measures:

a) Between 9^th and 11^th May, 2020,

b) Between 13^th & 16^th May, 2020 and again between 19^th & 22^nd May, 2020,

c) Between 25th May and 6^th June, 2020, Severe cyclones in the Arabian Sea as well in the Bay of Bengal,

In all the above periods (a, b & c) the southern peninsular India, West & Northwest states will get maximum widespread rainfall benefits. Northeast and central Indian states will get moderate benefits.

d) Between 8^th & 10^th June, 2020 and again between 13^th and 15^th June, 2020, (Tropical Cyclone)

e) Between 18^th June and 22^nd June, 2020,

f) Between 27^th June and 1^st July, 2020, (Tropical cyclone)

In all the above periods (d, e & f) the southern peninsular India, Northeast states will get fairly widespread good rainfall, Central, West and Northwest states will get normal benefits.

Widespread rainfall is forecast for the first fortnight of July, 2020. The southern peninsular India, Northeast states will get more benefits of this widespread rainfall, Central, West and Northwest states will get moderate benefits.

h) Between 3^rd July and 6^th July, 2020,

i) Look for a Cyclone between 8^th July and 20^th July, 2020. During this period heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast between 12^th & 14^th July, 2020 and the cyclone will cross the Odisha coast around 16^th/17^th July, 2020.

j) Hot and Dry conditions are forecast between 21^st & 31^st July, 2020. Isolated locations will get rainfall between 27^th July and 31^th July, 2020 (Tropical cyclone). This system will cut across central India and expected to move into the Arabian Sea.

k) Another depression related widespread rainfall is forecast between 1^st August & 4rh August, 2020,

l) Between 7^th August and 15^th August, 2020, a new depression in the Arabian Sea will become a Severe Cyclone and expected to cross the North Karnataka/Maharashtra coast.

(4) From the third week of July, 2020 conditions will indicate emergence of “POWERFUL ELNINO”.  From the third week of August till the last week of October, 2020 “VERY POWERFUL ELNINO” will be “ACTIVE”. During the above period it will be ‘VERY HOT & DRY’.  High activities of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, Trough in Easterlies, Thunderstorms with squally winds & KILLER LIGHTNING and Convective precipitation are forecast during the above period. Isolated places will suffer flooding and damages due to the above conditions. In view of the “EL NINO” factor and the last “Three Underlined Forecast Factor” mentioned in the above paragraph (3), I have to sadly ‘WARN’ that   “2020 SOUTHWEST MONSOON will be DEFICIT & SCANTY”.   2020 will be registering WORST MONSOON FAILURE comparable to 2009 MONSOON.

a) Look for a Super Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea between 16^th August, 2020 and 22^nd August, 2020. (Odisha coast and Gujarat/Karachi are likely the locations). Massive Devastations and fatalities are warned at the time of crossing the coast on 22^nd August, 2020.

b) Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast between 25^th & 27^th August, 2020,

c) Between 29^th August and 11^th September, 2020 look for a Super Cyclone. Between 9^th & 11^th September, 2020, Heavy to Very heavy rainfall with destructive storms will cause severe flooding and fatalities, Odisha and West Bengal coast could be the location.

d) Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast between 15^th & 17^th Sept, 2020 and between 23^rd & 25^th Sept, 2020,

e) Another Depression is forecast between 28^th September, 2020 & 8th October, 2020. Massive Devastations & fatalities are warned at the time of crossing the coast around 8^th October, 2020. Odisha and West Bengal coast could be the location.

f) Look for another depression between 9^th & 11^th October, 2020. Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places is forecast during the above period. This depression will become a Severe Cyclone and will cross the coast around 17^th October, 2020.

During all the above periods West, Northwest states, interior region of central & southern peninsular states will experience the above weather conditions. East and Northeastern states will remain mostly dry.

(5) 2020 will have “EXCELLENT NORTHEAST MONSOON”. From the last week of October, 2020 till the second week of January, 2021 “Widespread Incessant Rainfall” is forecast.  During the above period due to Cyclonic circulations, Tropical Cyclone, thunderstorms with KILLER LIGHTNING will cause FLOODING, LANDSLIDES and DEVASTATIONS upsetting normal life.  Also during the above period “More Cyclonic activities are forecast in the Arabian sea”.

Important dates for disaster preventive measures:

a) Between 20^th October and 31^st October, 2020 look for a Super Cyclone (Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea) Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal will cross North Andhrapradesh/Odisha coast. “CLOUDBURST” like Very Heavy rainfall is forecast at the time of the Cyclone crossing the coast. Catastrophic damages and fatalities due to cyclonic storm and severe flooding are warned. EastUttarpradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Bihar will also get good rainfall. Cyclone in the Arabian Sea will head towards Arabian Peninsula.

b) Short spell good rainfall is forecast between 3^rd & 6^th November, 2020, Andhrapradesh and TamilNadu will get the benefits,

c) Look for a Super Tropical Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal as well in the Arabian Sea between 7^th & 17^th November, 2020. This Cyclone with devastating winds and heavy to Very heavy rainfall will cross the coast of west Bengal/Bangladesh on 16^th/17^th November, 2020. Catastrophic damages and fatalities due to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and severe flooding are warned. The cyclone in the Arabian Sea will head towards the gulf of Oman.

d) A new low pressure trough will yield heavy to very heavy rainfall between 21^st & 23^rd November, 2020 and between 29^th November & 3^rd December, 2020. TamilNadu, Andhrapradesh, Kerala and Karnataka will get maximum benefits. Flash flooding warned.

‘Severe Winter” will engulf North Indian states between 29^th November & 3^rd December, 2020.

e) Look for another Super Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal between 5^th & 16^th December, 2020. This Cyclone with devastating winds and heavy to Very heavy rainfall will cross TamilNadu coast on 15^th/16^th December, 2020 between Tondi and Karaikal. Catastrophic damages and fatalities due to cyclonic storm and severe flooding are warned.

Between 4^th & 15^th December, 2020 – Blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall/Icy rainfall will upset normal life in Kashmir, Jammu, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh Uttarakhand, Punjab and Nepal. Severe Warning dates: 8^th to 11^th December, 2020 and 13^th & 15^th December, 2020.

f) Moderate rainfall activities with squally winds with thunderstorms are forecast in TamilNadu between 18^th & 24^th December, 2020 and again between 28^th & 31^st December, 2020.

g) Look for a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal between 5^th & 15^th January, 2021. This Cyclone around 14^th January, 2021 will cross the TamilNadu coast between Kodikkarai and Cuddalore. Severe damages and fatalities due to cyclonic storm and severe flooding are warned.

RAMACHANDRAN, Astro-Meteorologist.
sesh.ramachandran@gmail.com    https://www.facebook.com/ramachandran.seshadri