Monday, December 7, 2020 9:48 pm  Mandraselvan Ragupathy  0  14k 

VEDIC METEOROLOGY

2021 ANNUAL WEATHER FORECAST

(For the Indian sub-continent)

Forecast by: ‘Puyal’ Ramachandran

MAIN POINTS:

1) Volatile winter is forecast for the North & Northeast Himalayan region from the last week of December, 2020 till the middle of February, 2021. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast. During the above period Spate of blizzards, avalanches are forecast. The Central and the Southern states of India will experience moderate winter and also likely to experience, Cyclones, cyclonic circulations related fairly widespread rainfall. Landslides/mudslides are forecast during this period

2) From the third week of February, 2021 till the end of March, 2021 “Widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall causing Catastrophic flooding” is forecast for the Northwest, North and Western states of India. Interior districts of Southern Peninsula will experience “Widespread rainfall & flooding” during the above period. During the above period daytime temperatures will be above normal.

3) Central, Eastern and southern states of India will experience “Above Normal Temperatures” from the beginning of April, 2021 till the first fortnight of August, 2021.  Cyclonic circulation related rainfall, squally winds with thunderstorms and localised storms are forecast during the first three weeks of April, 2021. Above Normal Pre-Monsoon rainfall is forecast from the beginning of March, 2021 till the first week of June, 2021. “Killer lightnings” and Landslides are forecast during the last week of May, and early June, 2021. South west monsoon for the year 2021 will set around 28^th May, 2021.

4) Above Normal Daytime temperatures will be registered from the beginning of June till the beginning of August,2021.  Cyclonic circulation related rainfall, squally winds with thunderstorms & localised storms are forecast during (A & B) of 2021 Southwest monsoon. Monsoon this year will have three different phases. (A) From the second week of June, 2021 till the first week of July, 2021 “Fairly widespread rainfall” is forecast, (B) Inconsistent rainfall at scattered locations with occasional heavy rainfall is forecast between “the second week of July, 2021 and the first week of August, 2021 and (C) EXCELLENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL of 2021 Southwest Monsoon” is forecast between the second week of August, 2021 and the end of September, 2021.  Except the West & Northwest states of India rest of the Indian states will enjoy “ABOVE NORMAL’ monsoon rainfall. With a “Super Cyclone” during the first fortnight of October, the Southwest monsoon 2021 will start to withdraw.

5) NORTHEAST MONSOON for the year 2021 will set on time around 23^rd -25^th October, 2021. Spate of Cyclonic circulations, squally winds with thunderstorms & localised storms are forecast between the second week of October, 2021 and the end of November, 2021. Depression/Low pressure systems related rainfall is forecast during the entire month of December, 2021. “Near Normal Rainfall” is forecast during this NE Monsoon 2021 Winter 2021will be moderate/subdued over the Himalayan region and the plains of north Indian states.  Central & Southern states below the Vindhyas will experience warmer/normal winter.

DETAILED FORECAST:

1)Volatile winter is forecast for the north & northeast Himalayan region from the last week of December, 2020 till the middle of February, 2021. Warmer daytime temperatures are forecast. During the above period Spate of blizzards, avalanches are forecast. The central and the southern states of India will experience moderate winter and also likely to experience, Cyclones, cyclonic circulations related fairly widespread rainfall.  Landslides/mudslides are forecast during this period.

Important dates for “Preventive measures”:

a) Between 28^th, December, 2020 and 7^th January, 2021 Severe Blizzard is forecast. Heavy to Very Heavy snowfall and Avalanches will upset normal life. These conditions will be mostly experienced in the North & northeast Himalayan region.

# Look for a Severe Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal between 5^th and 15^th January, 2021. This cyclone will dump heavy to very heavy rainfall between 6^th & 9^th January, 2021; will cross the Tamilnadu coast between Kodiyakarai and Cuddalore around 14^th January, 2021.

b) Strong blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfall is forecast between 10^th January & 15^th January, 2021 and again between 19^th-22^nd January & 27^th January,2021 Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, the sub-Himalayan plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sikkim &the northeast Himalayan region will experience the above conditions. During the above periods “Avalanche Warning” is issued for Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand & Sikkim.

# Squally winds with thunderstorms/cyclonic circulation related rainfall is forecast for Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh between 18^th January and 28^th January,2021.  Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast between 19^th & 21^st January, 2021. During the above period “Severe cyclone” will cross north Tamilnadu/south Andhra coast around 27^th January, 2021.

c) Next set of Strong Blizzards with heavy to very heavy snowfalls and “Avalanches” are forecast between 2^nd February and 14^th February, 2021. Severe warnings are issued for 3^rd to 5^th Februar,2021 and 7^th to 12^th February, 2021.

# Squally winds with thunderstorms/cyclonic circulation related rainfall is forecast for Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh between 1^st February & 14^th February, 2021. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast between 2^nd February & 5^th February, 2021. During the above period “Severe cyclone” will cross north Tamilnadu/south Andhra coast around 11^th February, 2021. Landslides/mudslides are forecast during the above periods.

2) Between the third week of February, 2021 and the end of March, 2021 “Widespread heavy to very heavy rainfalls causing Catastrophic flooding” are forecast for the northwest, north and western states of India. Interior districts of southern peninsula will experience “Widespread rainfall & flooding” during the above period. Daytime temperatures will be above normal during the above period.

Important dates for “Preventive measures”:

i) Initially during the third week of February (19^th to 22^nd),2021 the coastal and interior districts of Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh & south Karnataka will experience widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Severe ‘Landslides / Mudflows are warned during the above period.

ii) Between 23^rd to 26^thFebruary, 2021 and again between 2^nd and 9^th March, 2021 thunderstorms with widespread moderate/heavy rainfall and landslides/mudslides are forecast. West, Northwest, Northern states and interior districts of central, southern peninsular India will experience Widespread rainfall & Severe flooding.

iii) Central & northern states of India will experience “Localised thunderstorms” with moderate to heavy rainfall between 11^th & 14^th March, 2021.

iv)Between 19^th & 22^nd March and again between 25^th & 28^th March,2021 Northwest and western states of India will experience “Severe Localised thunderstorms”.  Widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall sure to inflict damages to life and property due to flooding and storms.

# Interior districts of southern peninsular states will experience moderate/heavy rainfall at isolated places. During the above period a Severe Cyclone is forecast in the Arabian Sea. This Cyclone most likely will cross the western coast of India between Goa and Gujarat (Gulf of Khambhat) during the last few days of March/ first week of April,2021.

3) Central, Eastern and southern states of India will experience “Above Normal Temperatures” from the beginning of April, 2021 till the first fortnight of August, 2021.  Cyclonic circulation related rainfall, squally winds with thunderstorms & localised storms are forecast during the first three weeks of April, 2021. Above Normal Pre-Monsoon rainfall is forecast from the beginning of March, 2021 till the first week of June, 2021. “Killer lightnings” & Landslides are forecast during the last week of May, & early June, 2021. South west monsoon for the year 2021 will set around 28^th May, 2021.

Important dates for “Preventive measures”:

i) Cyclonic circulation related/localised thunderstorms will dump heavy to very heavy rainfall between 2^nd & 5^th April, 2021. West, Northwest, Northern and central states of Indian states will experience the above conditions. Flash flooding and damages due to severe storm at isolated locations are forecast.

ii) Heavy to very heavy rainfall due to a Cyclone in the Arabian Sea, localised thunderstorms are forecast between 9^th April and 16^th April,2021. (12^th to15th April,’21 Severe).

iii) Severe localised thunderstorm is forecast between 18^th April and 23^rd April, 2021. Heavy to very heavy rainfall (Cloud Burst?) during the above period will cause flash floods. The southern peninsular states, North and North-eastern states will experience the above conditions.

iv) Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast between 26^th and 29^th April,2021. Central, North-eastern states and East coastal regions will enjoy more benefits.

v) Moderately reduced rainfall is forecast throughout the month of May,2021. Look for fairly widespread rainfall between 2^nd May and 6^th May, 2021 and again between 8^th May & 14^th May,2021. Interior and east coastal regions of the southern peninsular states, East and North-eastern states of India will get more benefits. Southern & central states of India will experience VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES during this month.

vi) Between 18^th May and 20^th May,2021 moderate/heavy rainfall at isolated locations is forecast. Locations same as above.

vii) A Cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal is possible between 22^nd May and the first week of June,2021. This system will swing “TO & FRO’ (North to South) on the coastline between North Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. Catastrophic damages to life and property due to Strong Storms and Flooding due to CLOUDBURST/HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL from 25^th May,2021 and 4^th June, 2021is forecast. During this period due to western cyclonic circulations the North, Northwest states will also experience these conditions. KILLER LIGHTNINGS and SEVERE LANDSLIDES are warned during the above period. South west monsoon for the year 2021 will set around 28th May, 2021.

4) Above Normal Daytime temperatures will be registered from the beginning of June till the beginning of August,2021. Cyclonic circulation related rainfall, squally winds with thunderstorms & localised storms are forecast during (A & B) of 2021 Southwest monsoon. Monsoon this year will have three different phases. (A) From the second week of June, 2021 till the first week of July, 2021 “Farley widespread rainfall” is forecast, (B) Inconsistent rainfall at scattered locations with occasional heavy rainfall is forecast between “the second week of July, 2021 and the first week of August, 2021 and (C) EXCELLENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL of 2021 Southwest Monsoon” is forecast between the second week of August, 2021 and the end of September, 2021.  Except the West & Northwest states of India rest of the Indian states will enjoy “ABOVE NORMAL’ monsoon rainfall. With a “Super Cyclone” during the first fortnight of October, the Southwest monsoon 2021 will start to withdraw. 

i) Cyclonic circulation related heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast between 5^th June,2021 and 12^th June,2021. During this period monsoon will be aggressive causing FLASH FLOODS and SEVERE LANDSLIDES over the west coastal region from Kerala to south Gujarat. Interior Southern states will also get moderate to heavy rainfall during the above period.

ii) Fairly widespread rainfall due to Cyclonic circulation/localised storm is forecast between 17^th June and 20^th June,2021 and again between 24^th June and 27^thJune,2021. While the West, Northwest, Northern and central states of India will enjoy the best benefits during the above periods; interiors of southern peninsular states and the northeast will get moderate rainfall. Landslides are warned till the third week of June,2021. A Cyclone is forecast in the Arabian Sea between 13^th June and 22^nd June,2021 & it’s likely to cross south Gujarat coast around 19^th June,2021.

iii) Simultaneous depressions in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are forecast between 29^th June,2021 and 10^th July,2021. The depression in the Arabian Sea will move inland around 4^th July,2021. Due to this “Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall with Killer Lightnings” is forecast for the West, Northwest and Central states between 29^th June,2021 and 4^th July, 2021. During the above period moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast for the interior districts of southern peninsular states. The depression in the Bay of Bengal will become a Cyclone between 5^th July and 10^th July, 2021 and will cross the coast between Odisha and Bangladesh around 9^th July,2021.

iv) Another Severe Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is forecast Between 14^th July,2021 and 24^th July, 2021 During the above period heavy to very heavy rainfall is forecast at “Isolated places” in Central, North, North-eastern states and East coastal areas. Warning issued about Severe Thunderstorms and Killer Lightnings between 17^th & 18^th July, 2021. The Cyclone with devastating storm will cross the coast around 22^nd July,2021 between Odisha and West Bengal.

v) Look for a Very Severe Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal between 30^th July and 10^th August,2021. There could be TWO cyclonic circulations during this time. Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall coupled with Killer Lightnings will upset normal life between 31^st July and 4^th August,2021. North, North-eastern and Central states will experience these conditions. The Cyclone with “Devastating winds and CLOUDBURST” will cross the coast between North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha around 9^th August,2021. Advance precautionary disaster management will definitely avoid loss of human life and life-stock.

vi) The Best phase of WIDESPREAD rainfall activities is forecast between the second week of August,2021 & the end of September, 2021. Severe Thunderstorms with Killer lightnings and Flooding at many places due to heavy to very heavy rainfall are warned during the above period. Important dates of Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall:

(a) Between 14^th and 20^th August, 2021; North, Central, North-eastern states and the Southern peninsular states will get the benefits. Severe flash flooding (Cloud Burst) warned around 18^th/20^th August,2021.

(b) Between 22^nd and 24^th August, 2021 and again Between 29^th and 31^st August,2021; East Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Uttar Karnataka will experience Thunderstorms/Killer lightnings with Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall causing severe flooding.  North, North-eastern and southern states will experience Heavy/Moderate rainfall during the above period,

(c) Between 2^nd September, 2021 and 11^th September, 2021 more widespread heavy to very heavy rainfall causing Severe Flooding is forecast. North, North-Eastern states will experience these condition more than the central and the southern peninsular states.

(d) Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall is forecast between 13^th & 15^th September, 2021 and again between 18^th & 22^nd September,2021. The southern Peninsular states and Central States will experience these conditions. North and North-Eastern states will experience moderate/heavy rainfall.

(e)Look for Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall between 26^th and 30^th September, 2021. North, North-Eastern and Central states will experience these conditions. Landslide warned around 28^th September,2021.

(f) Far “Above Normal Temperatures’ will be registered during the entire month of October,2021. Between 2^nd October and 14^th October, 2021 a depression in the Bay of Bengal will become a Very Severe Cyclone will cross the North Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coast (between Srikakulam & Gopalpur) on 11^th/12^th October,2021. Devastation due to Severe Storms and Flooding due to heavy to very heavy rainfall (CLOUDBURST @ 2^nd /3^rd October and again @ 13^th/14^th October) are warned during the above period. Severe Landslide/ Mudslides (till 3^rd week of October’21) and Killer Lightnings are also warned during the above period. Advance precautionary disaster management will definitely avoid loss of human life and life-stock.  After the above cyclone 2021 Southwest monsoon will hasten its withdrawal.

5) NORTHEAST MONSOON for the year 2021 will set on time around 23^rd -25^th October, 2021. Spate of Cyclonic circulations, squally winds with thunderstorms & localised storms are forecast between the second week of October, 2021 and the end of November, 2021. Depression/Low pressure systems related rainfall is forecast during the entire month of December, 2021. “Near Normal Rainfall” is forecast during this NE Monsoon 2021. Winter 2021will be moderate/subdued over the Himalayan region and the plains of north Indian states.  Central & Southern states below the Vindhyas will experience warmer/normal winter.

Important dates for “Preventive measures”:

i) More dry and hot conditions are forecast between 15^th and 24^th October, 2021. A Dry Cyclone is possible between 17^th October and 24^th October,2021. This cyclone will cross the coast between North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha around 22^nd October,2021. (CLOUD BURST) Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall with strong storm will cause devastations only at the time of crossing.

ii)Look for a Severe Cyclone between 26^th October and 5^th November, 2021. Devastations & loss of life and property due to Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall (CLOUD BURST) coupled with Killer Lightnings” is forecast during (a) 28^th to30th October, 2021 and (b) between 1^st & 4^th November, 2021.  This cyclone will cross the coast around 3^rd/4^th November,2021 between Pondicherry and Ongole, Andhra Pradesh.

iii) Another Severe Cyclone between 8^th November, 2021 and 19^th November, 2021. With Very Powerful Winds and heavy to very heavy rainfall this Cyclone will cross the coast on 13^th November, 2021between Cuddalore and Chennai. This system will continue to travel inland & cause moderate/heavy rainfall between 17^th & 19^th November,2021. Fatalities due to KILLER LIGHTNINGS, devastations due to storms & Severe flooding due to heavy to very heavy rainfall (CLOUD BURST) will upset normal life.

# Winter 2021: North Indian states above the Vindhyas will start experiencing below normal night-time temperatures from the third week of November, 2021. Except for the month of December,2021, day time temperatures will be above normal. North and Northwest Himalayan regions will experience more snowfall than the Eastern Himalayan region. (A) Blizzards will dump heavy to very heavy snowfall between 29^thNovember and 5^th December,2021, Avalanches warned; (B) Again between 9^th & 14^th December, 2021, (C) Between 17^th & 20^th December,2021 and (D) Blizzards & Avalanches between 26^th December,2021 and 2^nd January, 2022.   More Icey rainfalls than snowfalls are forecast during the month of January,2022.

iv) Depression/Low pressure trough related localised storms dumping heavy to moderate rainfall are forecast between 24^th November, 2021 and 4^th December,2021. With Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall from 26^th to 29^th November,2021and again between 2^nd & 4^th December, 2021 with devastating storm upset normal life between Vedaranyam and Cuddalore.

v) December, 2021 will experience “The Best Rainfall during this year’s North East Monsoon” Depression/Low pressure trough related (mostly in the southwest Bay of Bengal or close to the Arabian Sea) localised storms will dump heavy to moderate rainfall at many place between 7^th & 12^th December, 2021 and again between 16^th & 19^th December, 2021.

vi) Depression/low pressure trough related localised storms will dump heavy to moderate rainfall is forecast between 26^th December, 2021 and 2^nd January, 2022. Tamilnadu will experience Fairly widespread moderate to heavy rainfall during the entire month of January 2022.

Important dates: (a) 5^th to 7^th January,2022, (b) 9^th to 14^th January,2022, (c) Look for a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal between 17^th January, 2022 and 27^th January,2022. This Cyclone will cross the coast around 24^th January,2022 between Karaikal and Pondicherry. During the above period Heavy to Very Heavy rainfall with severe storm will cause flooding and damages. Landslides/mudslides are also warned.

RAMACHANDRAN, Astro-Meteorologist.
sesh.ramachandran@gmail.com  https://www.facebook.com/ramachandran.seshadri